Ramya Raghavan

Ramya Raghavan

Ph.D. Candidate in Economics

Northwestern University

ramya.raghavan@u.northwestern.edu

Curriculum Vitae

I am a fourth-year Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Northwestern University. I previously completed an M.Sc. in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics at the London School of Economics.

In Fall 2024, I was a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

My research focuses on macroeconomics and household finance.

Working Papers

  • Household Composition and the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks

    with Aaron J. Amburgey
    PDF
    Abstract: We document that married households exhibit substantially larger consumption responses to monetary policy shocks than single households. This gap persists after accounting for standard demographic and balance-sheet characteristics, as well as labor-market dynamics. Married households dedicate a larger budget share to highly elastic luxuries and exhibit stronger responses within this category, jointly accounting for 81 percent of the response gap. We build a quantitative heterogeneous-agent model with non-homothetic preferences and consumption sharing in married households that matches these empirical patterns. By reducing the burden of basic needs, consumption sharing shifts expenditure composition toward luxuries and raises the within-good intertemporal elasticity of substitution, endogenously generating the aggregate response gap. Counterfactual experiments suggest that the secular decline in marriage has attenuated the aggregate consumption response to monetary policy.

  • The Treasury Maturity Rule

    with Hiroaki Endo and Luca Zanotti
    PDF
    Abstract: This paper studies how the U.S. Treasury manages debt maturity and how these decisions affect aggregate economic activity. We estimate a Treasury maturity rule and find that the Treasury systematically shortens debt maturity when economic activity weakens or borrowing needs increase. We then identify a debt maturity shock as the residual from this rule. An unexpected shift toward longer-term debt issuance contracts economic activity by raising long-term borrowing costs, which spill over to broader financial markets and tighten financial conditions. Debt maturity also shapes the transmission of fiscal policy: counterfactual analysis shows that financing government spending at longer maturities dampens its expansionary effects.

  • Supply Chain Shocks and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Global Shipping Disruptions

    with Diego Känzig
    PDF Data
    Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of global supply chain disruptions, focusing on maritime choke points critical to international trade. We identify supply chain shocks by combining narrative accounts of disruptions at two key locations—the Suez and the Panama Canals—with high-frequency financial data on shipping rates. Supply chain shocks lead to a persistent increase in shipping costs, causing a decline in economic activity and an increase in producer and consumer prices. Shipping capacity initially contracts before adjusting sluggishly. The shocks also lengthen delivery times and increase input shortages, while leaving geopolitical risk largely unchanged. Using granular input-output data, we document heterogeneous sectoral effects and estimate substitution elasticities, finding limited short-run but stronger medium-run substitution.
    Presentations
    2026
    • ASSA*
    • NBER SI: International Trade & Investment*
    • San Francisco Fed Pacific Basin Research Conference (scheduled)
    2025
    • EC-CEPR-JIE: Global Shocks, Macroeconomic Spillovers, and Geopolitical Risks*
    • SED*
    • NBER SI: Dynamic Equilibrium Models*

    * Presentation by co-author.

  • The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

    with Costas Gavriilidis, Diego Känzig and Jim Stock
    PDF Data
    Abstract: We develop a novel measure of climate policy uncertainty based on newspaper coverage. Our index spikes during key U.S. climate policy events—including presidential announcements on international agreements, congressional debates, and regulatory disputes—and shows a recent upward trend. Using a novel instrument for plausibly exogenous uncertainty shifts, we find that higher climate policy uncertainty decreases output and emissions while raising commodity and consumer prices, acting as supply rather than demand shocks. Faced with this trade-off, monetary policy does not accommodate climate policy uncertainty shocks, shaping their transmission. Firm-level analyses show stronger declines in investment and R&D when firms have higher climate change exposure.
    Presentations
    2026
    • ASSA*
    • ECB-CETEx-FS: Climate, Nature and Monetary Policy Conference
    2025
    • ASSA*
    • NBER SI: Macro Public Finance*
    • SITE: Macroeconomics of Uncertainty and Volatility*

    * Presentation by co-author.